March 2015

Monthly Archives

Netherlands – Turkey

European Championship Qualifiers

In group A of the European Championship Qualifiers, the Netherlands is currently the number 3 in the standing. Although they dominate in most statistics, they lost their matches against Iceland and Czech Republic. The figure below shows that these teams are more efficient then the Netherlands, both in their own shots as preventing goals. The Netherlands still has a 12% conversion rate of their own shots but this is many due to the 6-0 victory against Latvia.

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The Netherlands – Turkey

Tonight The Netherlands play against the number four Turkey. A crucial duel for both teams to stay in the race for qualification.Schermafbeelding 2015-03-28 om 15.35.58 Schermafbeelding 2015-03-28 om 15.36.08


Voorbeschouwing Feyenoord – PSV

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Expected numbers of goals in Eredivisie

Lately there have been discussed about the low numbers of goals compared to the goal attempts outside the box of Memphis Depay. Statistics are nothing without the background and below you can read the explanation and comparison to other players.

Conversion rate per location

In the figure below the conversion rate per location is shown. The conversion rate is based on all the shots in the Eredivisie until now.

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These average conversion rates are used to calculate the expected goals of a team or a player based on the number of shots of each location. From outside the 16 meters the chance to score is 3,8%. With these numbers in mind, one would statistically expect Memphis Depay to score 1.6 goals out of his 42 goal attempts from outside the box. This means he’s statistically merely underperforming – or how context matters in these cases.

Expected goals of teams

In the figure below the actual goals from shots are compared with the expected number of goals based on the average conversion rate of the locations from where the shots are taken.

On the left side, the teams that score above expectation are depicted, and on the right side the teams that score below.
The figure shows that PEC Zwolle and Ajax scored already 10 goals more than from what we should expect from the average conversion rate. FC Dordrecht performs below expectation; they scored 9 goals less than expected

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Expected numbers of goals of individual players

In the figure below the actual numbers of goals from shots are compared to the expected number of goals based on the average conversion rate of the location from where the shots were taken. In the figure the players with 50 shots are more are shown

On the top the players who score above their expectation are depicted, on the bottom the players that score below expectation.

Michiel Kramer scores the highest, where 9 goals are expected, he already was 14 times successful from shots.

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